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China’s coal-electricity industry is at a crossroads. China owns the world’s largest coal-electricity machine, but in the tide of dynamic low-carbon transformation, it is facing a large-scale adversity. At the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the positioning and direction of coal-electricity in the “Fourth Five-Year Plan” will determine the preservation status of China’s coal-electricity industry at a very high level.
Jiang Kexuan is a dynamic system analysis and researcher at the Dynamics Research Institute of the Development and Reform Commission, and has been a long-term research on the areas of dynamics, environment and climate change.
(Source: WeChat public number “Energy Magazine” ID: energymagazine Author: Shen Xiaobo)
Starting in April this year, Jiang Kexuan, on behalf of the Development and Reform Commission, cooperated with the American Marilan University to conduct a discussion on the participation of China’s coal and electricity. The relevant reports are expected to be released at the beginning of their year.
There are different views from several major power consulting institutions. Jiang Kexun believes that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will not need to add new coal-electric machines. By 2050, China’s coal-electricity power generation will also be close to zero.
Jiang Kehong did not think he was singing coal and electricity. He said that the global tide of low-carbon transformation of power in the world cannot resist. The sooner the Chinese coal-electricity industry recognizes this trend and adjusts it as soon as possible, so that the operating conditions can be improved in the future; if the reverse investment in coal and electricity is the ultimate disaster of the coal-electricity enterprise itself, which will face more severe preservation challenges in the future.
“Motivation”: According to your research, what kind of color do you think coal power will play in the 14th Five-Year Plan and in the medium and long term? The stone’s leaves were hurt by netizens and were incompetent.
Jiang Kerong:I believe that if China’s coal and electric power does not require the addition of new coal-electric power units during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the power and system requirements can be realized. The internal structure of the coal-electric power unit can change, but the total number of machines can not be increased.
From a medium-term perspective, coal-electricity will gradually join the historical stage. It is expected that by 2050, the power generation of coal-electricity will be close to zero, and the total number of machines will be less than 200 kW.
EscortThe lives of Chinese coal-electric machines are often cut in more than 20 years. We set a looser life parameter for the coal-electrical unit, setting the life cycle of China’s coal-electrical to 35 years.
《Motivation》: Is this a natural market scrutiny process or the result of policy strengthening?
Jiang Kerong:From the perspective of market self-development selection, with the technological development of wind and photovoltaics, the electricity cost has been falling continuously. Now in the final stage of wind and light average, it is expected that photovoltaics will be priced online before 2022, and the risk will be earlier, and the economicality of coal and electricity will soon be lost.
From the perspective of climate change, the world does not allow more coal-electrical units to be developed. China promises the 2030 carbon emission peak. Today, after measuring the headlines, if the carbon emission peak is achieved in 2030, it will be difficult to achieve the Paris Agreement, which is proposed in the Paris Agreement, “to make the global uniform temperature more efficient. babyThe goal of reducing the degree before industrialization is to be within 2 degrees Celsius. Now, the country is seeking amendments to make corrections to China’s coal and electricity industry in the future. In the future, China’s coal and electricity will face a more severe carbon emission constraint.
From the perspective of environmental purification, China’s coal-electrical machinery units will also face more stringent environmental indicators. From January to October this year, Beijing’s cumulative PM2.5 concentration was 41 micrograms/cubic meter, which was a great decline compared with the previous period of severe haze. However, China’s air management is a long-term process, and we must look at the development countries. The PM2Escort manila.5 concentration is below 20 micrograms/cubic meter, and air management will bring more stringent emission standards to coal and electricity. What I am worried about now is that under such a trend, coal and electricity enterprises are still investing in reverse, and the final result can be that the investment cannot be recovered.
《Power》: Today, coal and electricity have declared “ultra-low emissions”, which is similar to the emissions of natural atmosphere, and will come to Pinay escort also needs to realize “near zero emissions”, and carbon emissions can be applied to CCS (carbon capture and storage) technology.
Jiang Kerong:First of all, there is a mixed concept here. Coal and electric machines have achieved “ultra-low emissions” and reaching the emission standard of natural gas, which does not mean that they have reached the emission value of natural gas. The emission standard is that the Ministry of Environmental Protection has just dropped Sugar BabyThe temperature in Nan’an City has dropped below zero. The set emission base target is Sugar daddy. In actual applications, the emission value of natural gas burning is far lower than the standard set by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, even if the “ultra-low emissionsSugar daddy is set. daddy release, the emissions of coal-electric motors are also higher than those of natural gas integrated circuits.
I like the development of coal-electric motors with “nearly zero emissions” and this is also the same as the different paths of preserving coal-electric motors under stricter environmental protection policies, but this will bring higher capital and increase coal-electric phase The economicality of wind and light is faster.
In addition, now we are talking about the reform of coal-electricity, which is a technical contradiction between “ultra-low emissions” and “near-zero emissions” and “near-zero emissions” and “economic emissions” and “economic emissions” and “eight-zero emissions” in the future. In order to reduce emissions, the additional environmental protection equipment demand machine sets of coal-electricity units are operating stably, if coal-electricity units are Sugar baby‘s efforts are frequent, which will bring about increased emissions. The heroine Wan Yurou is the only young actress in Jiabao, and there is also a Pinay escort next to her
Jinchao MasterSugar‘s only young actress. daddy Pay attention to the environmental purification of coal and electricity, and it is important to evaluate emissions that are restricted by the Ministry of Environmental Protection’s policies. In fact, in addition to these emissions, there are still dozens of purified compounds produced by coal and electricity. Due to the large total volume of coal and electricity installed in China, the total emissions of these emissions are in full swing. The increase in volume is also amazing. The more representative of these is the emission of mercury, which will soon become a binding indicator.
From the perspective of carbon emissions, coal and electricity do not need to increase, and the stock department will slowly add CCS devices, which will also bring about an increase in coal and electricity costs. href=”https://philippines-sugar.net/”>Sugar baby will cause coal and electricity to lose economic efficiency quickly.
《Power》: You talk about economics. The life of the coal-electricity you set up is 35 years, but the actual application life of the coal-electricity machine can reach 50 or even 60 years. If the service time is postponed, how economics is the coal-electricity?
Jiang Kerong:The old discount of coal-electric motors is usually Escort15 years. After the discount is completed, the electricity price of coal-electric power will be very cheap, and it will be difficult for the short term.
This is a strong influence on demand and policy. If the coal-electric motor unit continues to operate for a long time, it will have a serious impact on climate change and environmental purification, hindering the reality of climate and environmental goals.
“Motivation”: american has announced its participation in the Paris Agreement. Some people believe that China does not need to strictly follow it. Therefore, coal and electricity can also gain room for development. What do you think?
Jiang Kerong:This is a very irresponsible view. The american agency joined the TC:
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